Episodes  · Season 4  · Episode 74  · 25 min

Maor Sadra: Beyond Last Click

Maor Sadra, CEO and co-founder of INCRMNTAL, on why last-click attribution is a lie the industry chose to believe for 20 years, why incrementality, the measure of what your marketing adds that would not have happened anyway, should be the default standard for any marketing investment, and how Freenow proved the model by spending less to get more conversions.

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 ·  The Business of Marketing  · S4 E74  · 25 min
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"If I can tap a user before the checkout, welcome to affiliate marketing. That is how easy it was to game last-click attribution."

The Conversation with Justin Cooke

Why last-click attribution is a lie everyone chose to believe and why incrementality is the measure that actually tells you if marketing is working

Maor Sadra has spent 24 years in ad tech, starting by accident when he took a lead-hunting job as a 20-something, realising he could impact the world from a keyboard, and finding himself fascinated by the gap between what advertising measurement said was true and what he suspected was actually true. He co-founded INCRMNTAL to answer a simple question: does your marketing actually add value that would not have existed without it?

In this conversation he explains why last-click attribution is not just imprecise but actively misleading, why the ad tech industry collectively chose to believe it because the alternative required harder work, what incrementality measurement actually looks like in practice, and how mobility platform Freenow proved the model by remixing their inventory based on incremental value and ending up spending less to get more conversions.

Key Takeaways

  • Last-click attribution was a lie everyone chose to believe because it was simple. If I can tap a user before checkout, welcome to affiliate marketing. The system was gameable by design.
  • Incrementality should be the default. You are spending money on ads. You should be getting conversions that would not have happened without them. That is the only honest test.
  • Freenow remixed their inventory based on incremental value. They spent less and got more conversions. That is the proof of concept.
  • 24 years in ad tech. The consistent challenge: separating truth from BS in a market that markets to itself.
  • The ability to impact the world from a keyboard, no matter where you are. That is still what fascinates me about this industry.

Topics Covered

  1. 01 Why last-click attribution is misleading and why the industry chose to believe it anyway
  2. 02 What incrementality measurement actually means: value you would not have generated without the ad
  3. 03 How Freenow remixed their inventory based on incremental value and spent less to get more
  4. 04 Why the move from traffic measurement to value measurement is the most important shift in ad tech
  5. 05 24 years from lead hunter to CEO: what fascination with the gap between truth and measurement produces

Key Exchanges

05
01 Tell us about INCRMNTAL and how you came to found it.

INCRMNTAL is completely focused on incrementality measurement. The mission is to evolve marketing from measuring clicks to measuring value. I had been in ad tech for 20-plus years and the consistent problem was separating truth from BS. Last-click attribution was the lie that everyone chose to believe. If I can tap a user before checkout, welcome to affiliate marketing. I founded INCRMNTAL to change that.

The career frustration that became a founding thesis.

02 Why did everyone choose to believe last-click attribution?

We can track everything. We can measure everything. But only when I started really understanding how this industry worked, last-click attribution, giving 100% credit to whoever taps the user last, stopped making sense to me. And I thought: who are we kidding? Why is everyone delighted to believe this notion? It was because the alternative was harder.

The self-serving simplicity of a broken measurement model.

03 What is incrementality and why should it be the default?

Incrementality means: I am spending money on ads. I should be getting something incremental that I would not just get if it was not for my ad spend. That needs to be the default. Not the exception. Not the advanced measurement approach. The default.

The reframe from clever measurement to basic commercial honesty.

04 Tell me about the Freenow case study.

Freenow had their attribution provider showing which channels were generating value. They challenged us: can we create an aggressive remix of their inventory based on incremental value? What this test led to was they ended up spending less to get more conversions. Optimising for attributed value creates the illusion of efficiency. Optimising for incremental value creates actual efficiency.

The most direct proof of the model's commercial value.

05 What does this mean for how brands should approach measurement?

Every marketer should be asking: of all the conversions I am attributing to my ad spend, how many would have happened anyway? That gap is where budget waste lives. And the brands that understand incrementality and optimise for it will consistently outperform those that optimise for attributed metrics.

The commercial implication for every marketing decision.

S4 E74Season & Episode
25 minDuration
24yr Maor Sadra in advertising technology from lead hunter to CEO of INCRMNTAL
100% Of credit given to the last click under last-click attribution: a fundamentally broken model

"Incrementality needs to be the default. You are spending money on ads. You should be getting what you would not have gotten without them."

Hear Maor on
The Business of Marketing
Season 4 Episode 74 25 min
Apple Podcasts→ Spotify→ Maor's full profile→ Maor on LinkedIn→
SEO & AI indexed Read the full transcript 4 turns
Lightly edited for readability.

Host Tell us about INCRMNTAL and the problem you are solving.

Sadra INCRMNTAL is focused on incrementality measurement. 24 years in ad tech and the consistent problem was separating truth from BS. Last-click attribution: give 100% credit to whoever taps the user last. If I can tap a user before checkout, welcome to affiliate marketing. That is how easy it was to game. Incrementality should be the default. You are spending on ads. You should be getting conversions you would not have gotten without them.

Host Tell me about the Freenow case study.

Sadra Freenow challenged us: remix our inventory based on incremental value. The result: they spent less to get more conversions. Optimising for attributed value creates the illusion of efficiency. Optimising for incremental value creates actual efficiency. That is the proof.