A career on the scientific side of marketing, from randomised direct mail tests for central government to measurement roles at Google and Amazon, now leading strategy and effectiveness at Sage. Davies argues that most companies measure only the promotion they can see, that brand exists to win buyers years before they enter the market, and that AI is about to let B2B companies install a marketing team rather than hire one.
Davies started as a fine art graduate who needed to earn a living and fell into marketing, then got obsessed with it after a talk on direct mail testing. He printed two versions of a recruitment letter, one offering a free bottle of water at enrollment, randomly assigned them across 2,000 envelopes, and found the voucher lifted turn up rates. That test and learn instinct led him to a postgraduate in economics and mathematical science, then to central government working on econometrics, including whether marketing could get long-term smokers to quit. From there he moved through Google and Amazon and now leads marketing strategy, investment and effectiveness at Sage, always on the scientific side of marketing evaluation.
In this conversation with host John Horsley, Davies argues that marketing effectiveness has collapsed into media effectiveness, ignoring the rest of the mix where the bigger gains sit. He makes the case for brand advertising as a way to reach software buyers who only come into market every five to eight years, so Sage is first on the list when they do, reframing the debate for sales and finance as building the pipeline of today and the pipeline of tomorrow. He is bullish that AI can decouple revenue growth from headcount growth and even let companies install a full service marketing team rather than hire one, while warning that distinctiveness is still hard and that short CMO tenures wreck the long-term consistency marketing needs. His throughline is simple: read the science, live with your customers, and hold your course.